Urawa Reds vs Yokohama F. Marinos
J1 League, Japan · 2026-08-29 · 12:00 CET
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LDWDWThe score model made a Urawa Reds win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 3:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Urawa Reds 1.56 – 1.26 Yokohama F. Marinos.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urawa Reds win | 46.0% | 42.6% | +3.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.6% | 27.6% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| Yokohama F. Marinos win | 32.3% | 29.8% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.4% | 48.7% | +4.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.1% | 28.3% | +2.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | 54.2% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.8% | 33.2% | -3.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Urawa Reds 42.8 / Yokohama F. Marinos 43.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.