Shimizu S-Pulse vs Kashiwa Reysol
J1 League, Japan · 2026-08-29 · 11:30 CET
LWWLL
LWWWWThe score model makes an Kashiwa Reysol win the most likely outcome at 41%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). The data's biggest gap to the market: BTTS: No — 56.7% vs 48.0% implied (+8.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Shimizu S-Pulse 1.06 – 1.18 Kashiwa Reysol.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shimizu S-Pulse win | 34.4% | 28.5% | +5.9% |
| Draw | 25.1% | 28.3% | -3.3% |
| Kashiwa Reysol win | 40.6% | 43.2% | -2.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.7% | 46.7% | -8.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.8% | 26.5% | -7.7% |
| Both teams to score | 43.3% | 52.0% | -8.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.1% | 31.9% | -5.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Shimizu S-Pulse 26.7 / Kashiwa Reysol 44.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.