Nagoya Grampus vs Okayama
J1 League, Japan · 2026-08-29 · 12:00 CET
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LWWWLThe score model made a Nagoya Grampus win the most likely outcome at 49%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nagoya Grampus 1.40 – 0.96 Okayama.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nagoya Grampus win | 49.0% | 37.9% | +11.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.5% | 28.0% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Okayama win | 27.4% | 34.1% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.0% | 48.3% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.3% | 28.1% | -6.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.8% | 54.2% | -9.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.4% | 33.3% | -6.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nagoya Grampus 41.1 / Okayama 27.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.