Kyoto vs Avispa Fukuoka
J1 League, Japan · 2026-08-29 · 12:00 CET
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WLLWLThe score model makes a Kyoto win the most likely outcome at 47%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 37%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Kyoto win — 47.1% vs 36.6% implied (+10.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kyoto 1.28 – 0.91 Avispa Fukuoka.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyoto win | 47.1% | 36.6% | +10.5% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 31.0% | -6.1% |
| Avispa Fukuoka win | 28.1% | 32.5% | -4.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.5% | 37.9% | -0.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.9% | 19.5% | -1.6% |
| Both teams to score | 41.3% | 45.7% | -4.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.5% | 26.4% | +3.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kyoto 41.7 / Avispa Fukuoka 40 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.