Kawasaki Frontale vs Chiba
J1 League, Japan · 2026-08-29 · 12:00 CET
WLWWD
LLWDLThe score model made a Kawasaki Frontale win the most likely outcome at 68%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 4:2 (HT 4:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kawasaki Frontale 2.43 – 1.10 Chiba.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawasaki Frontale win | 67.7% | 61.6% | +6.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 15.7% | 21.5% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Chiba win | 16.6% | 17.0% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.4% | 61.1% | +7.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.9% | 40.3% | +6.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.7% | 57.5% | +2.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.1% | 41.8% | -2.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kawasaki Frontale 43 / Chiba 12.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.