Gamba Osaka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
J1 League, Japan · 2026-08-29 · 11:00 CET
LLWDL
LWWWDThe score model makes an Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 74.2% vs 61.8% implied (+12.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gamba Osaka 1.15 – 1.43 Sanfrecce Hiroshima.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gamba Osaka win | 32.1% | 19.7% | +12.3% |
| Draw | 22.8% | 22.6% | +0.2% |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima win | 45.2% | 57.7% | -12.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.5% | 59.0% | -11.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.8% | 38.2% | -12.4% |
| Both teams to score | 50.1% | 57.4% | -7.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.3% | 40.2% | -10.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gamba Osaka 40.2 / Sanfrecce Hiroshima 42.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.