Lumezzane vs AlbinoLeffe
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-10-10 · 17:30 CET
DWLWD
LWDWLThe score model made a Lumezzane win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 3:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lumezzane 1.28 – 1.18 AlbinoLeffe.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lumezzane win | 37.9% | 39.8% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.8% | 29.7% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| AlbinoLeffe win | 33.3% | 30.5% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.6% | 43.7% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.4% | 24.1% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | 50.1% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.8% | 30.1% | -2.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lumezzane 45.4 / AlbinoLeffe 48.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.