Entella vs Juve Stabia
Serie B, Italy · 2026-10-10 · 15:00 CET
LLDWD
LWLDDThe score model makes an Entella win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 35%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 65.5% vs 53.2% implied (+12.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Entella 1.08 – 1.00 Juve Stabia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entella win | 35.9% | 46.3% | -10.5% |
| Draw | 32.9% | 29.9% | +3.0% |
| Juve Stabia win | 31.3% | 23.8% | +7.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.5% | 46.8% | -12.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.8% | 27.9% | -12.1% |
| Both teams to score | 43.1% | 51.9% | -8.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.9% | 31.9% | -9.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Entella 27.5 / Juve Stabia 41.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.