Empoli vs Palermo
Serie B, Italy · 2026-10-10 · 15:00 CET
DLLDD
WWDWDThe score model made a Palermo win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 2:4 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Empoli 1.10 – 1.41 Palermo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 28.1% | 25.3% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.1% | 26.8% | +2.3% | ✗ |
| Palermo win | 42.9% | 47.9% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.9% | 52.8% | -6.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.5% | 31.7% | -7.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | 56.2% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.5% | 36.0% | -8.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Empoli 27.3 / Palermo 48 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Empoli vs Palermo in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.