Juve Stabia vs Pisa
Serie B, Italy · 2026-09-06 · 15:00 CET
LWLDD
LWWLDThe score model makes a Juve Stabia win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Juve Stabia win — 36.3% vs 29.3% implied (+7.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Juve Stabia 1.21 – 1.13 Pisa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juve Stabia win | 36.3% | 29.3% | +7.0% |
| Draw | 31.0% | 30.1% | +0.9% |
| Pisa win | 32.6% | 40.6% | -7.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.4% | 46.1% | -4.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.8% | 26.0% | -5.2% |
| Both teams to score | 48.9% | 52.0% | -3.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.9% | 31.4% | -3.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Juve Stabia 40.5 / Pisa 22.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.