Cagliari U20 vs Monza U20
Primavera 1, Italy · 2026-10-12 · 15:00 CET
LWLDD
LWDLDThe score model made a Cagliari U20 win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cagliari U20 1.49 – 1.21 Monza U20.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari U20 win | 43.1% | 39.7% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.7% | 27.6% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Monza U20 win | 30.1% | 32.8% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.5% | 49.6% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.5% | 28.7% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | 54.7% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.3% | 34.5% | +5.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cagliari U20 38.6 / Monza U20 38.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.