Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctThe season in numbers
HT Over 1.5 paid out more than the market charged: +5.8% at market prices across 50 matches. 2 other markets also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Atalanta U20 produced performances worth 3 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 33.2' on average.
Add Primavera 1 fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining Primavera 1 schedule 10,000 times a day. AS Roma U20 win the 2026-2027 title in 41% of them, projecting ~71 points; Parma U20 are next at 26%. At the other end, Albinoleffe U20 finish in the bottom three in 97% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Parma U20's title chance down 1 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma U20 | 11 | 71 | 61–80 | 41% | 90% | — |
| 2 |  Parma U20 | 11 | 68 | 58–77 | ▼26% | 82% | — |
| 3 |  Inter U20 | 13 | 68 | 58–77 | ▲25% | 80% | <1% |
| 4 |  Fiorentina U20 | 3 | 57 | 47–66 | 2% | 26% | 2% |
| 5 |  Bologna U20 | 9 | 56 | 47–66 | 2% | 24% | 2% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 18 |  Atalanta U20 | 3 | 46 | 36–55 | <1% | 2% | 26% |
| 19 |  Monza U20 | 4 | 43 | 34–52 | — | <1% | 39% |
| 20 | Albinoleffe U20 | 4 | 28 | 20–36 | — | — | 97% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 330 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/italy/primavera-1/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Primavera 1 live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/italy/primavera-1">Primavera 1 stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Primavera 1 match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter U20 | 13 | 4.7 | +8.3 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | Parma U20 | 11 | 3.9 | +7.1 | |
| 3 | AS Roma U20 | 11 | 7.0 | +4.0 | |
| 4 | Empoli U20 | 11 | 1.4 | +9.7 | outperformed expectations |
| 5 |  Lazio U20 | 10 | 1.1 | +8.8 | outperformed expectations |
| · · · | |||||
| 18 | Fiorentina U20 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 | |
| 19 |  Juventus U20 | 3 | 2.5 | +0.5 | |
| 20 | Atalanta U20 | 3 | 6.0 | -3.0 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisInter U2013 ptsParma U2011 ptsAS Roma U2011 ptsEmpoli U2011 ptsLazio U2010 ptsBologna U209 pts
Genoa U207 pts
Verona U207 pts
AC Milan U207 pts
Cagliari U207 pts
Cesena U206 ptsComo U205 pts
Torino U205 pts
Lecce U204 ptsMonza U204 pts
Sassuolo U204 ptsAlbinoleffe U204 ptsFiorentina U203 ptsJuventus U203 ptsAtalanta U203 ptsGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+