Primavera 1 predicted table 2026/27
Italy · The rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 24 October 2026
- Parma U20 are the most likely Primavera 1 champions, finishing first in 43% of 10,000 simulations (projected 70 points; AS Roma U20 next on 25%).
- Albinoleffe U20 (99%), Monza U20 (50%) are more likely than not to finish in the bottom 3 places.
- Fiorentina U20 sit 15th today but are projected to finish 4th — the model rates them well above their current position.
| # | Team | P | Pts now | Proj. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parma U20 | 7 | 15 | 7061–79 | 43% | 89% | <1% | 1st (43%) |
| 2 | AS Roma U20 | 7 | 12 | 6758–76 | 25% | 79% | <1% | 1st (25%) |
| 3 | Inter U20 | 7 | 15 | 6657–75 | 21% | 74% | <1% | 2nd (23%) |
| 4 | Fiorentina U20 | 7 | 7 | 5848–67 | 3% | 29% | 1% | 4th (11%) |
| 5 | Bologna U20 | 7 | 12 | 5748–66 | 2% | 26% | 1% | 5th (10%) |
| 6 | Empoli U20 | 7 | 15 | 5546–64 | 2% | 18% | 2% | 7th (9%) |
| 7 | Como U20 | 7 | 9 | 5546–64 | 1% | 18% | 2% | 6th (9%) |
| 8 | Cesena U20 | 7 | 9 | 5444–63 | <1% | 14% | 4% | 7th (8%) |
| 9 | AC Milan U20 | 7 | 10 | 5444–63 | <1% | 13% | 4% | 10th (8%) |
| 10 | Lecce U20 | 7 | 10 | 5344–62 | <1% | 11% | 4% | 9th (8%) |
| 11 | Genoa U20 | 7 | 11 | 5243–61 | <1% | 9% | 5% | 9th (8%) |
| 12 | Lazio U20 | 8 | 12 | 5142–60 | <1% | 6% | 7% | 13th (7%) |
| 13 | Torino U20 | 8 | 9 | 5041–59 | <1% | 5% | 10% | 13th (8%) |
| 14 | Juventus U20 | 7 | 6 | 4838–57 | <1% | 3% | 17% | 16th (10%) |
| 15 | Sassuolo U20 | 8 | 9 | 4738–57 | <1% | 2% | 18% | 17th (10%) |
| 16 | Verona U20 | 7 | 7 | 4738–56 | <1% | 3% | 18% | 17th (10%) |
| 17 | Atalanta U20 | 8 | 7 | 4637–55 | <1% | 1% | 25% | 19th (12%) |
| 18 | Cagliari U20 | 7 | 8 | 4536–54 | <1% | 1% | 31% | 19th (15%) |
| 19 | Monza U20 | 7 | 5 | 4132–50 | <1% | <1% | 50% | 19th (29%) |
| 20 | Albinoleffe U20 | 7 | 4 | 2417–32 | 0% | 0% | 99% | 20th (94%) |
Order = average final points across all simulations. Proj. pts shows the average and the 10th–90th percentile range. Percentages are the share of simulations in which the club finishes in that zone.
How this table is made
Every club gets an attack and a defence rating from a Dixon-Coles model fitted to the league's results (recent matches weigh more). Each of the 308 remaining scheduled fixtures is then played out 10,000 times by sampling a scoreline from the model, and the final table of each run is recorded. Ties are separated by goal difference, then goals scored; head-to-head rules, point deductions and split rounds are not modelled. This is a statistical projection, not a tip.
How good are the model's probabilities? Its match forecasts are scored publicly, every match, on the calibration record.
Use this table
Free to republish with credit and a link to this page (CC BY 4.0). Journalists: contact@football-charts.com for a club-specific version.
