Primavera 1 title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Italy · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 23 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Parma U20 (45%), AS Roma U20 (24%), Inter U20 (20%). 75 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma U20 | 7 | 15 | 7061–79 | 45% | 60 from 31 (1.94/game) |
| AS Roma U20 | 7 | 12 | 6758–76 | 24% | 63 from 31 (2.03/game) |
| Inter U20 | 7 | 15 | 6657–75 | 20% | 60 from 31 (1.94/game) |
| Fiorentina U20 | 7 | 7 | 5748–67 | 3% | 68 from 31 (2.19/game) |
| Bologna U20 | 7 | 12 | 5748–66 | 2% | 63 from 31 (2.03/game) |
| Empoli U20 | 7 | 15 | 5547–64 | 1% | 60 from 31 (1.94/game) |
| Como U20 | 7 | 9 | 5546–64 | 1% | 66 from 31 (2.13/game) |
Below 1%: Cesena U20, AC Milan U20, Lecce U20, Genoa U20, Lazio U20, Torino U20, Sassuolo U20, Juventus U20, Verona U20, Atalanta U20, Cagliari U20, Monza U20, Albinoleffe U20.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 310 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).