Waterford vs Galway
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-10-19 · 20:45 CET
WDDLL
LWLDWThe score model makes a Waterford win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 71.6% vs 59.1% implied (+12.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Waterford 1.43 – 1.26 Galway.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waterford win | 39.6% | 44.3% | -4.7% |
| Draw | 28.8% | 26.0% | +2.8% |
| Galway win | 31.7% | 29.8% | +1.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.5% | 61.0% | -10.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.4% | 40.9% | -12.4% |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | 63.4% | -7.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.6% | 42.3% | -8.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Waterford 46.9 / Galway 47.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.