Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-10-09 · 20:45 CET
LWDWW
LLLLLThe score model made a Shelbourne win the most likely outcome at 57%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 5:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Shelbourne 1.66 – 0.78 Sligo Rovers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelbourne win | 56.8% | 72.4% | -15.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.1% | 17.1% | +10.0% | ✗ |
| Sligo Rovers win | 16.1% | 10.5% | +5.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.0% | 64.6% | -20.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.9% | 44.2% | -21.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 45.3% | 52.4% | -7.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.5% | 45.1% | -16.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Shelbourne 50.6 / Sligo Rovers 50.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.