Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-10-08 · 21:00 CET
LWWWL
WWLLWThe score model made a Shamrock Rovers win the most likely outcome at 60%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 3:1 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Shamrock Rovers 1.84 – 0.81 Drogheda.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamrock Rovers win | 60.4% | 67.3% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 20.3% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Drogheda win | 14.7% | 12.4% | +2.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.3% | 55.9% | -6.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.4% | 34.8% | -7.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 47.9% | 48.4% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.0% | 40.2% | -6.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Shamrock Rovers 49.7 / Drogheda 50.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.