Derry City vs St. Patricks
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-10-19 · 20:45 CET
LDWDW
WLWWWThe score model makes a St. Patricks win the most likely outcome at 34%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 62.8% vs 50.8% implied (+12.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Derry City 1.08 – 1.10 St. Patricks.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derry City win | 33.2% | 30.7% | +2.5% |
| Draw | 32.6% | 28.4% | +4.2% |
| St. Patricks win | 34.2% | 40.9% | -6.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.2% | 49.2% | -12.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.7% | 29.1% | -11.5% |
| Both teams to score | 45.7% | 54.4% | -8.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.4% | 33.3% | -10.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Derry City 49.8 / St. Patricks 49.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.