Dundalk vs Bohemians
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-10-02 · 20:45 CET
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LWWWWThe score model makes a Bohemians win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Dundalk win — 32.2% vs 28.2% implied (+4.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dundalk 1.43 – 1.64 Bohemians.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dundalk win | 32.2% | 28.2% | +4.0% |
| Draw | 26.5% | 25.5% | +1.0% |
| Bohemians win | 41.3% | 46.4% | -5.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% | 60.1% | -0.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.9% | 39.7% | -2.8% |
| Both teams to score | 62.7% | 61.8% | +0.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.3% | 40.8% | +0.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dundalk 36.6 / Bohemians 50.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.