St. Patricks vs Waterford
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-08-28 · 20:45 CET
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DWDDLThe score model made a St. Patricks win the most likely outcome at 62%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St. Patricks 1.95 – 0.83 Waterford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Patricks win | 62.3% | 69.6% | -7.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.6% | 18.4% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Waterford win | 14.1% | 12.0% | +2.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | 60.4% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.4% | 39.6% | -9.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | 51.2% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.9% | 41.0% | -1.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: St. Patricks 50.9 / Waterford 46.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.