Galway vs Shelbourne
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-08-28 · 20:45 CET
DLWLD
DLLWDThe score model made a Galway win the most likely outcome at 34%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Galway 1.15 – 1.14 Shelbourne.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galway win | 34.4% | 36.3% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.6% | 27.9% | +3.7% | ✓ |
| Shelbourne win | 34.0% | 35.8% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.4% | 50.0% | -9.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.0% | 29.5% | -9.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | 55.2% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.0% | 34.7% | -8.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Galway 45.7 / Shelbourne 49.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.