Drogheda vs Dundalk
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-08-28 · 21:00 CET
LLWWL
WDLLLThe score model made a Drogheda win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 2:3 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Drogheda 1.42 – 1.32 Dundalk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drogheda win | 38.1% | 29.6% | +8.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.5% | 27.5% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Dundalk win | 33.4% | 42.9% | -9.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | 50.8% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.4% | 30.1% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 55.5% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.4% | 34.7% | -2.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Drogheda 50.8 / Dundalk 35.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.