Sligo Rovers vs Waterford
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-08-21 · 21:00 CET
DLLLL
DWDDLThe score model made a Sligo Rovers win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sligo Rovers 1.50 – 1.37 Waterford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sligo Rovers win | 39.0% | 32.7% | +6.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.6% | 26.9% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Waterford win | 33.5% | 40.3% | -6.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.7% | 55.7% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.4% | 34.8% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.3% | 59.8% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.6% | 38.1% | -1.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sligo Rovers 50.6 / Waterford 46 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.