Sligo Rovers vs Waterford
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-08-21 · 21:00 CET
LLDDL
WDDWWThe score model makes a Sligo Rovers win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Sligo Rovers win — 39.0% vs 32.3% implied (+6.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sligo Rovers 1.50 – 1.37 Waterford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sligo Rovers win | 39.0% | 32.3% | +6.6% |
| Draw | 27.6% | 27.1% | +0.5% |
| Waterford win | 33.5% | 40.6% | -7.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.7% | 55.7% | -1.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.4% | 35.2% | -2.9% |
| Both teams to score | 59.3% | 59.8% | -0.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.6% | 38.1% | -1.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sligo Rovers 50.8 / Waterford 46.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.