Dundalk vs Galway
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-08-21 · 20:45 CET
LWDLL
DLWLDThe score model made a Dundalk win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dundalk 1.54 – 1.10 Galway.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundalk win | 46.0% | 50.3% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.2% | 24.9% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| Galway win | 25.8% | 24.8% | +1.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | 59.7% | -10.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.2% | 38.8% | -11.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | 60.7% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.6% | 40.9% | -9.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dundalk 34.5 / Galway 45.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.