Drogheda vs St. Patricks
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-08-21 · 20:45 CET
LWDDD
WDDDWThe score model makes an St. Patricks win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 59.6% vs 51.1% implied (+8.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Drogheda 0.95 – 1.35 St. Patricks.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drogheda win | 25.0% | 19.3% | +5.6% |
| Draw | 30.6% | 25.6% | +5.0% |
| St. Patricks win | 44.4% | 55.0% | -10.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.4% | 48.9% | -8.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.1% | 28.6% | -8.5% |
| Both teams to score | 47.0% | 49.7% | -2.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.4% | 33.4% | -6.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Drogheda 50.7 / St. Patricks 50.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.