Drogheda vs St. Patricks
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-08-21 · 20:45 CET
LLWWL
WLWWWThe score model made a St. Patricks win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Drogheda 0.95 – 1.35 St. Patricks.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drogheda win | 25.0% | 19.1% | +5.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.6% | 25.6% | +5.0% | ✗ |
| St. Patricks win | 44.4% | 55.3% | -10.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.5% | 49.1% | -8.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.1% | 28.4% | -8.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.0% | 49.7% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.4% | 33.7% | -6.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Drogheda 50.5 / St. Patricks 50.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.