Bohemians vs Derry City
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-08-21 · 20:45 CET
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DWLDWThe score model makes a Bohemians win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 73.4% vs 68.0% implied (+5.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bohemians 1.31 – 1.09 Derry City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bohemians win | 40.0% | 46.4% | -6.3% |
| Draw | 30.4% | 28.0% | +2.5% |
| Derry City win | 29.5% | 25.7% | +3.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.0% | 46.8% | -3.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.1% | 26.8% | -4.6% |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 51.1% | -1.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.6% | 32.0% | -5.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bohemians 50.8 / Derry City 50.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.