Bohemians vs Derry City
Premier Division, Ireland · 2026-08-21 · 20:45 CET
LWWWW
LDWDWThe score model made a Bohemians win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 5:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bohemians 1.31 – 1.09 Derry City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bohemians win | 40.0% | 46.3% | -6.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.4% | 27.5% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Derry City win | 29.5% | 26.1% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.0% | 49.5% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.1% | 29.3% | -7.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 54.3% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.6% | 34.5% | -7.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bohemians 50.6 / Derry City 50.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.