Cork City vs Finn Harps
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-10-09 · 20:45 CET
LWLLW
WLLLLThe score model made a Cork City win the most likely outcome at 81%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cork City 2.79 – 0.70 Finn Harps.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cork City win | 81.1% | 81.4% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 11.8% | 11.6% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Finn Harps win | 7.1% | 7.0% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.6% | 75.3% | -7.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.9% | 57.8% | -11.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.6% | 52.2% | -5.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.5% | 53.8% | -17.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cork City 34.4 / Finn Harps 52.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.