Cobh Ramblers vs Longford
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-08-28 · 22:45 CET
DWLDW
LLWWDThe score model made a Cobh Ramblers win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cobh Ramblers 1.74 – 1.08 Longford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cobh Ramblers win | 53.2% | 38.7% | +14.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.8% | 28.4% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| Longford win | 24.0% | 32.9% | -8.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.5% | 47.4% | +6.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.2% | 27.7% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | 52.7% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.1% | 33.0% | +0.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cobh Ramblers 51 / Longford 51.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.