Athlone vs Bray
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-08-28 · 22:45 CET
WDWDW
DWWWLThe score model made a Bray win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Athlone 1.39 – 1.60 Bray.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athlone win | 33.6% | 30.2% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.4% | 26.1% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Bray win | 43.0% | 43.7% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.3% | 55.5% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.9% | 35.0% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | 58.7% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.8% | 38.2% | +4.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Athlone 51 / Bray 51 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.