Longford vs Bray
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-08-22 · 20:30 CET
LLWWD
DWWWLThe score model made a Bray win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 4:2 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Longford 1.60 – 1.61 Bray.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Longford win | 38.6% | 34.5% | +4.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.6% | 26.3% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Bray win | 38.8% | 39.2% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.2% | 58.4% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.0% | 38.1% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 63.4% | 61.0% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.2% | 39.9% | -3.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Longford 50.6 / Bray 50.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.