Longford vs Bray
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-08-22 · 20:30 CET
WLWWL
WWLLWThe score model makes a Longford win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 62%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Longford win — 39.1% vs 30.0% implied (+9.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Longford 1.61 – 1.60 Bray.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Longford win | 39.1% | 30.0% | +9.0% |
| Draw | 22.4% | 26.6% | -4.2% |
| Bray win | 38.5% | 43.4% | -4.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.3% | 56.4% | +6.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.1% | 35.9% | +4.2% |
| Both teams to score | 63.5% | 59.6% | +3.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.6% | 38.6% | -2.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Longford 50.8 / Bray 50.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.