Wexford vs Athlone
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-08-21 · 20:45 CET
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WDWDWThe score model made a Wexford win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wexford 1.58 – 0.93 Athlone.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wexford win | 53.0% | 42.7% | +10.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.1% | 27.0% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Athlone win | 22.8% | 30.3% | -7.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.9% | 51.9% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.5% | 31.8% | -7.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.6% | 55.9% | -8.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.9% | 36.5% | -7.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Wexford 50.7 / Athlone 50.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.