Wexford vs Athlone
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-08-21 · 20:45 CET
DWLWL
WLDLWThe score model makes a Wexford win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: BTTS: No — 52.4% vs 44.6% implied (+7.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wexford 1.58 – 0.93 Athlone.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wexford win | 53.0% | 47.3% | +5.8% |
| Draw | 24.1% | 26.2% | -2.1% |
| Athlone win | 22.8% | 26.5% | -3.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.9% | 52.5% | -6.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.4% | 32.0% | -7.5% |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | 55.4% | -7.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.9% | 36.0% | -7.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Wexford 51 / Athlone 50.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.