Treaty United vs Cork City
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-08-21 · 20:45 CET
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LLWWWThe score model makes an Cork City win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 77.9% vs 62.6% implied (+15.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Treaty United 0.93 – 1.62 Cork City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Treaty United win | 22.0% | 15.6% | +6.4% |
| Draw | 23.7% | 24.2% | -0.5% |
| Cork City win | 54.3% | 60.2% | -5.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.9% | 54.2% | -7.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.3% | 34.4% | -9.1% |
| Both teams to score | 48.0% | 51.6% | -3.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.1% | 37.4% | -15.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Treaty United 50.9 / Cork City 30.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.