Cork City vs Kerry
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-08-07 · 18:45
The score model makes a Cork City win the most likely outcome at 75%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cork City 2.32 – 0.68 Kerry.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cork City win | 74.8% | 68.0% | +6.8% |
| Draw | 15.8% | 20.7% | -5.0% |
| Kerry win | 9.5% | 11.3% | -1.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.6% | 58.3% | -0.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.3% | 37.8% | -2.5% |
| Both teams to score | 44.0% | 49.7% | -5.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.3% | 39.8% | -11.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cork City 30.8 / Kerry 50.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.