Cork City vs Kerry
Division 1, Ireland · 2026-08-07 · 20:45 CET
DWDLW
DWWLLThe score model made a Cork City win the most likely outcome at 75%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 3:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cork City 2.32 – 0.68 Kerry.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cork City win | 74.8% | 65.1% | +9.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 15.8% | 21.7% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| Kerry win | 9.5% | 13.2% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.6% | 57.3% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.2% | 36.9% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 44.0% | 51.2% | -7.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.3% | 39.3% | -11.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cork City 30.7 / Kerry 50.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.