North East Utd vs Goa
ISL, India · 2026-11-21 · 15:00 CET
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LDDWLThe score model makes a North East Utd win the most likely outcome at 36%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Goa win — 33.4% vs 27.9% implied (+5.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: North East Utd 1.38 – 1.32 Goa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| North East Utd win | 36.0% | 44.7% | -8.8% |
| Draw | 30.7% | 27.3% | +3.3% |
| Goa win | 33.4% | 27.9% | +5.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.7% | 52.6% | -1.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 32.4% | -3.7% |
| Both teams to score | 57.4% | 56.5% | +0.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.9% | 36.9% | -4.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: North East Utd 23.7 / Goa 22.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open North East Utd vs Goa in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.