Chennaiyin vs Punjab
ISL, India · 2026-11-21 · 12:30 CET
DLLDW
LWDWLThe score model makes a Punjab win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Punjab win — 46.0% vs 37.4% implied (+8.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chennaiyin 1.20 – 1.66 Punjab.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chennaiyin win | 25.2% | 35.1% | -9.9% |
| Draw | 28.8% | 27.5% | +1.3% |
| Punjab win | 46.0% | 37.4% | +8.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | 51.2% | +3.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.1% | 31.3% | +0.8% |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | 56.3% | +2.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.6% | 34.7% | +0.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Chennaiyin 23.8 / Punjab 21.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Chennaiyin vs Punjab in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.