Ujpest vs Kisvarda
NB I., Hungary · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
DLLWL
DDDLLThe score model makes an Ujpest win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 66.0% vs 59.1% implied (+6.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ujpest 1.86 – 1.08 Kisvarda.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ujpest win | 54.8% | 59.4% | -4.6% |
| Draw | 24.3% | 21.9% | +2.4% |
| Kisvarda win | 20.9% | 18.7% | +2.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.4% | 61.6% | -5.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.0% | 40.9% | -6.9% |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | 59.1% | -2.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.0% | 42.4% | -4.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Ujpest 44.5 / Kisvarda 35.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ujpest vs Kisvarda in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.