Puskas Academy vs MTK Budapest
NB I., Hungary · 2026-11-21 · 13:30 CET
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LWLLDThe score model makes a Puskas Academy win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 61.9% vs 58.5% implied (+3.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Puskas Academy 1.86 – 1.31 MTK Budapest.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Puskas Academy win | 49.6% | 47.2% | +2.5% |
| Draw | 24.3% | 24.7% | -0.5% |
| MTK Budapest win | 26.1% | 28.1% | -2.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.3% | 60.1% | +1.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.0% | 39.6% | -0.6% |
| Both teams to score | 62.4% | 62.0% | +0.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.1% | 41.5% | -3.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Puskas Academy 44.6 / MTK Budapest 43.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Puskas Academy vs MTK Budapest in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.