Ferencvaros vs Gyor
NB I., Hungary · 2026-11-21 · 18:30 CET
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LWWDDThe score model makes a Ferencvaros win the most likely outcome at 61%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 67.6% vs 51.1% implied (+16.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ferencvaros 1.97 – 0.90 Gyor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ferencvaros win | 61.4% | 71.4% | -10.0% |
| Draw | 22.8% | 16.3% | +6.5% |
| Gyor win | 15.8% | 12.3% | +3.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.7% | 68.5% | -13.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.4% | 48.9% | -16.6% |
| Both teams to score | 51.9% | 56.3% | -4.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.7% | 47.4% | -8.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Ferencvaros 44.2 / Gyor 38.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ferencvaros vs Gyor in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.