Gyor vs Puskas Academy
NB I., Hungary · 2026-10-11 · 19:00 CET
DLWWL
WLLWWThe score model made a Gyor win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gyor 1.63 – 0.97 Puskas Academy.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gyor win | 51.4% | 38.8% | +12.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.4% | 26.0% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Puskas Academy win | 21.2% | 35.2% | -14.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.3% | 60.6% | -12.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.5% | 40.4% | -13.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | 63.5% | -12.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.2% | 41.8% | -11.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gyor 36.3 / Puskas Academy 42.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.