Gyor vs Ferencvaros
NB I., Hungary · 2026-09-03 · 19:30 CET
WDLWW
WWWDDThe score model made a Gyor win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gyor 1.34 – 1.16 Ferencvaros.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gyor win | 39.5% | 23.3% | +16.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.8% | 24.3% | +5.5% | ✗ |
| Ferencvaros win | 30.6% | 52.4% | -21.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.7% | 61.7% | -16.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.3% | 41.0% | -16.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.2% | 61.9% | -9.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.8% | 42.3% | -13.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gyor 36 / Ferencvaros 42.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.