Nyiregyhaza vs Paks
NB I., Hungary · 2026-08-29 · 14:45 CET
WLDLD
LWDLWThe score model made a Paks win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nyiregyhaza 1.41 – 1.87 Paks.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyiregyhaza win | 28.1% | 40.5% | -12.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.7% | 24.5% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Paks win | 47.2% | 35.0% | +12.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.7% | 64.2% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.6% | 43.5% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 65.1% | 65.5% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.4% | 44.2% | -0.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nyiregyhaza 36.1 / Paks 43.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.