Kisvarda vs Gyor
NB I., Hungary · 2026-08-30 · 16:30 CET
LDDWL
WDLWWThe score model made a Gyor win the most likely outcome at 55%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kisvarda 0.82 – 1.64 Gyor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kisvarda win | 17.4% | 27.4% | -10.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.1% | 26.3% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| Gyor win | 55.5% | 46.3% | +9.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 57.3% | -12.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.5% | 36.5% | -13.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.6% | 60.0% | -13.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.2% | 39.0% | -6.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kisvarda 33.2 / Gyor 35.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.