Kisvarda vs Debrecen
NB I., Hungary · 2026-08-23 · 17:30 CET
LDWLL
WLLWDThe score model makes an Debrecen win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 73.5% vs 67.1% implied (+6.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kisvarda 1.22 – 1.38 Debrecen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kisvarda win | 31.7% | 28.9% | +2.9% |
| Draw | 29.1% | 27.3% | +1.8% |
| Debrecen win | 39.2% | 43.8% | -4.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.2% | 53.3% | -5.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.5% | 32.9% | -6.5% |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | 57.3% | -3.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.9% | 36.2% | +0.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kisvarda 33 / Debrecen 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.