Kisvarda vs Debrecen
NB I., Hungary · 2026-08-23 · 17:30 CET
LDDWL
DDDWLThe score model made a Debrecen win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kisvarda 1.22 – 1.38 Debrecen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kisvarda win | 31.7% | 29.1% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.1% | 27.4% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| Debrecen win | 39.2% | 43.6% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.2% | 54.0% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.5% | 33.4% | -6.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | 57.5% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.6% | 36.5% | +0.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kisvarda 32.7 / Debrecen 43.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.