Gyor vs Zalaegerszegi
NB I., Hungary · 2026-08-23 · 17:30 CET
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LLWLLThe score model makes a Gyor win the most likely outcome at 62%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 71.4% vs 57.5% implied (+13.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gyor 1.89 – 0.81 Zalaegerszegi.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gyor win | 61.6% | 62.4% | -0.8% |
| Draw | 24.1% | 20.9% | +3.2% |
| Zalaegerszegi win | 14.4% | 16.7% | -2.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.7% | 62.9% | -12.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.6% | 42.5% | -13.9% |
| Both teams to score | 48.4% | 58.0% | -9.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.4% | 43.3% | -13.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gyor 34.9 / Zalaegerszegi 43.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.