MTK Budapest vs Nyiregyhaza
NB I., Hungary · 2026-08-22 · 17:30 CET
DWDLD
DWLLWThe score model makes a MTK Budapest win the most likely outcome at 51%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 64%). The data's biggest gap to the market: MTK Budapest win — 50.9% vs 40.0% implied (+10.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: MTK Budapest 1.97 – 1.34 Nyiregyhaza.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTK Budapest win | 50.9% | 40.0% | +10.9% |
| Draw | 24.1% | 26.7% | -2.6% |
| Nyiregyhaza win | 25.0% | 33.3% | -8.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.3% | 56.2% | +8.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.2% | 35.7% | +6.4% |
| Both teams to score | 64.6% | 60.0% | +4.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.1% | 38.5% | +1.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: MTK Budapest 41.1 / Nyiregyhaza 35.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.