Puskas Academy vs Paks
NB I., Hungary · 2026-08-16 · 17:30 CET
WWLLW
LWDLWThe score model made a Puskas Academy win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 3:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Puskas Academy 1.69 – 1.42 Paks.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puskas Academy win | 42.9% | 42.4% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.0% | 25.8% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Paks win | 31.1% | 31.8% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.1% | 62.1% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.7% | 41.7% | -3.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | 64.6% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.5% | 41.8% | +0.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Puskas Academy 43 / Paks 43 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.