Puskas Academy vs Paks
NB I., Hungary · 2026-08-16 · 17:30 CET
WDWLW
WWWLDThe score model makes a Puskas Academy win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 62.4% vs 55.3% implied (+7.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Puskas Academy 1.69 – 1.42 Paks.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Puskas Academy win | 42.9% | 42.9% | -0.0% |
| Draw | 26.0% | 25.2% | +0.8% |
| Paks win | 31.2% | 31.9% | -0.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.0% | 64.8% | -4.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.6% | 44.7% | -7.1% |
| Both teams to score | 62.9% | 66.1% | -3.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.6% | 44.0% | -1.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Puskas Academy 43.2 / Paks 43.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.