Ujpest vs MTK Budapest
NB I., Hungary · 2026-08-15 · 16:30 CET
DLWDW
DWDLLThe score model made an Ujpest win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 71%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ujpest 1.95 – 1.74 MTK Budapest.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ujpest win | 42.5% | 47.6% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.4% | 24.7% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| MTK Budapest win | 34.1% | 27.7% | +6.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.4% | 62.8% | +8.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50.5% | 42.5% | +8.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 71.7% | 63.8% | +7.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.7% | 42.7% | +3.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ujpest 43 / MTK Budapest 40.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.