Ujpest vs MTK Budapest
NB I., Hungary · 2026-08-15 · 16:30 CET
LLLWW
DDWDLThe score model makes a Ujpest win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 71%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 71.4% vs 62.7% implied (+8.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ujpest 1.95 – 1.74 MTK Budapest.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ujpest win | 42.6% | 46.5% | -3.9% |
| Draw | 23.4% | 25.1% | -1.7% |
| MTK Budapest win | 34.0% | 28.5% | +5.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.4% | 62.7% | +8.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50.5% | 42.3% | +8.2% |
| Both teams to score | 71.7% | 64.3% | +7.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.7% | 42.6% | +3.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ujpest 43.2 / MTK Budapest 40.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.