Nyiregyhaza vs Kisvarda
NB I., Hungary · 2026-08-15 · 17:30 CET
WLDLD
LDDWLThe score model made a Nyiregyhaza win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nyiregyhaza 1.35 – 1.15 Kisvarda.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyiregyhaza win | 40.0% | 48.6% | -8.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.7% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Kisvarda win | 30.4% | 24.6% | +5.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.8% | 51.1% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.3% | 30.6% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | 54.7% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.8% | 34.6% | +2.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nyiregyhaza 35.1 / Kisvarda 32.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.