Nyiregyhaza vs Kisvarda
NB I., Hungary · 2026-08-15 · 17:30 CET
DDWLL
LLDWLThe score model makes a Nyiregyhaza win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 75.7% vs 69.1% implied (+6.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nyiregyhaza 1.35 – 1.15 Kisvarda.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nyiregyhaza win | 40.0% | 48.2% | -8.2% |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.9% | +2.8% |
| Kisvarda win | 30.4% | 24.9% | +5.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.7% | 50.9% | -5.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.3% | 30.9% | -6.6% |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | 54.3% | -2.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.8% | 34.6% | +2.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nyiregyhaza 35.2 / Kisvarda 32.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.