Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos
Super League, Greece · 2026-10-10 · 18:30 CET
WLDLD
LLLWDThe score model made an Atromitos win the most likely outcome at 34%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Asteras Tripolis 1.14 – 1.18 Atromitos.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asteras Tripolis win | 32.9% | 39.3% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 32.6% | 30.2% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Atromitos win | 34.5% | 30.5% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.0% | 41.4% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.5% | 22.3% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.4% | 48.7% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.1% | 28.9% | +5.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Asteras Tripolis 39.5 / Atromitos 39 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.