Olympiacos Piraeus B vs Asteras Tripolis B
Super League 2, Greece · 2026-10-11 · 17:00 CET
DWLLD
LWLWDThe score model made an Olympiacos Piraeus B win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Olympiacos Piraeus B 1.66 – 1.10 Asteras Tripolis B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympiacos Piraeus B win | 50.4% | 36.2% | +14.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.1% | 28.9% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| Asteras Tripolis B win | 25.5% | 34.8% | -9.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | 43.6% | +8.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.9% | 24.3% | +5.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | 50.3% | +3.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.4% | 30.8% | +0.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Olympiacos Piraeus B 22.7 / Asteras Tripolis B 23.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.